A hashrate forward fixes what you earn per unit of hashrate, and in September 2026 that certainty meant settling for a price roughly 12% to 23% below spot, according to Luxor's September lookback, published on Hashrate Index. That is a single month, and it is a worked example, not a verdict. It also says nothing about the other half of a miner's math: what it costs to keep the machines running.
Disclosure: Luxor sells these forwards, and Fathom Labs sells miners and hosting, so both of us have an interest in how the topic gets framed.
What a hashprice forward is and how it settles
A hashprice forward lets a miner agree today on a price for future hashrate. Hashprice is expected gross revenue per PH/s per day, not profit, because it leaves out power, pool fees, hosting and equipment (ViaBTC). It floats with bitcoin's price, network difficulty and fees.
Luxor's forwards are cash-settled against Luxor's Bitcoin Hashprice Index, using the average hashprice over the contract. If that average ends up above the fixed price, the seller pays the buyer. If it ends up below, the buyer pays the seller. Nobody delivers any hashrate (Hashrate Index explainer). Contracts run one to five months and are priced mid-market on Luxor's Non-Deliverable Hashrate Forward market.
A Luxor-authored hedging guide on Hashrate Index describes the trade plainly: you swap upside for certainty. It also names two risks that come with it. Basis risk exists because miners are paid in BTC while the forward is quoted in USD. Uptime risk exists if you hedge 100% of your hashrate and then run less of it (Hashrate Index).
What September 2026 showed
Luxor reports that sellers of USD forwards locked in about $30.10 to $34.72 per PH/s per day. The September average of Luxor's index, which is what the contracts settled against, was $39.33.
The arithmetic is short:
- $34.72 / $39.33 = 0.883, about 12% below spot.
- $30.10 / $39.33 = 0.765, about 23% below spot.
The range spans contracts with one- to five-month tenors, and the article does not say which tenor got which price. Think of it as upside given up. It is not a fee, and it is not a loss on the contract: the seller got the price they agreed to.
September itself was fairly steady. Luxor's index opened at $39.21, closed at $39.92 (up 1.8%), and moved between $37.61 on Sept 16 and $41.01 about six days later. Most of the gap was not made in September. It was made earlier.
Why the gap was so large
Hashprice had climbed sharply after those forwards were sold. Per Luxor's August lookback, August spot rose about 24.4%, from $31.63 to $39.33. Blockspace put hashprice up more than 43% from a June low near $27 (Blockspace, Aug 24, 2026).
Timing mattered a lot. On Aug 24, Blockspace reported Luxor quoting September at roughly $38.63. By our arithmetic that is about 1.8% under the eventual $39.33, so a seller who locked in late August gave up far less than one who locked in months earlier.
The denomination mattered too. In BTC terms, the one-month forward sold at 0.00050 BTC and beat the 0.00049 settlement. The two- to five-month BTC sales lost. BTC-denominated hashprice fell 5.1% over September, to 0.00047702, while USD hashprice rose 1.8%. Same month, same index, opposite direction.
Why one month is not a verdict
The same Luxor article looks at the trailing 12 months, and the picture there is different. Rolling USD hedges returned +3.0% (1-month) to +12.9% (5-month). Rolling BTC hedges returned -0.8% to -10.3%. Luxor itself calls hedging "a cost of business rather than a revenue generation strategy."
So September does not show that forwards are a bad idea, and the trailing year does not show they are a good one. Each result depends on when you sold, for how long, and in which currency.
Forward prices for October 2026 to March 2027 averaged about $36.65 per PH/s per day in Luxor's lookback, roughly 7% below the September spot average ($36.65 / $39.33 = 0.932). That is not a forecast. Blockspace notes that forward prices do not guarantee realized mining revenue.
Forward vs fixed hosting rate: which risk are you carrying?
A miner has two lines to price. Revenue is hashprice, which floats. Cost is power and hosting, which can float or be fixed depending on the contract.
A forward works on the revenue line. A fixed all-in hosting rate works on the cost line. They are different tools for different risks, and having one does not cover the other.
Hosting is priced in a few ways. A Foreman hosting guide lists an all-in per-kWh rate, power plus a fee where the client carries energy price swings, and hybrids with revenue sharing. The structure decides who holds the power-price risk. In 2022, Hashrate Index reported that Compute North's contracts barred it from passing higher power costs to clients and it went bankrupt, while Core Scientific raised hosting rates to $0.10/kWh (Hashrate Index). That is 2022-era history, not current pricing.
At Fathom Labs, hosting in Southeast Texas, served by Entergy Texas, is $0.07/kWh all-in for miners bought from us, with no minimum. Bring-your-own miners are $0.08/kWh with a 10-unit minimum. We charge no performance fees and take no share of mined output. That makes the cost line a known number. It does nothing for revenue: a miner on any hosting rate still earns whatever hashprice turns out to be. We do not sell hashrate forwards or hedging products.
Before you decide, ask which of these you are carrying:
- Revenue risk: bitcoin price, difficulty and fees all move hashprice.
- Power-price risk: it depends on your hosting contract.
- If you hedge, basis and uptime risk.
Run your numbers at more than one hashprice level in the profitability calculator, and see hosting costs for what goes into the per-kWh figure.
FAQ
What is a hashrate forward?
It is a contract that fixes a price for hashrate over one to five months. Luxor's version is cash-settled against Luxor's Bitcoin Hashprice Index: if the average is above the fixed price, the seller pays the buyer, and if below, the buyer pays the seller. No hashrate changes hands.
Did hedging cost miners money in September 2026?
It cost sellers of USD forwards upside, not money on the contract. Luxor reports they locked in about $30.10 to $34.72 per PH/s per day against a $39.33 spot average, which is about 12% to 23% below spot. One month is a thin sample, and the trailing 12-month figures in the same article are different.
Does a fixed hosting rate hedge my mining revenue?
No. A fixed all-in rate such as $0.07/kWh fixes your cost line only. Your revenue still floats with hashprice, which moves with bitcoin's price, difficulty and fees.
Should I hedge with a forward?
This post does not take a side. A forward trades upside for certainty and brings basis and uptime risk. Whether that fits depends on your margins, your costs and how much variation you can absorb. If you want to talk through the cost side, contact us.